First full-case run (runs/2026-05-20T20-15-04/) produced hypotheses
with log_odds +31 (8 direct_evidence + 15 supports). That's the
naive-Bayes independence assumption breaking down: 15 different
phenomena all "supporting" the same hypothesis from one source are
not 15 independent pieces of evidence, they're highly correlated.
DESIGN.md §4.5 last bullet flagged this as a "未实施旋钮" — this
commit implements it.
Rule: the k-th edge of a given (hyp_id, edge_type) contributes
log_lr_base / k instead of log_lr_base. Cumulative is harmonic
sum H_N, bounded by ~ ln N. Single-edge hypotheses unaffected
(k=1 → /1 → no change). Replaying the 2026-05-20 graph's 108
edges under the new rule pulls the top hypothesis from +31.0 →
+8.75; the smallest active hypothesis from +4.0 → +2.08.
Also adds rank + log_lr_base to confidence_log entries so the
math is auditable from the persisted graph.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
8020c24776